Metagame Analysis – A Statistical Perspective on the First Ever Pauper Commander 1k
Hello and happy day, fellow connoisseurs of fine common cardboard! It’s your friendly neighborhood cPDH Spike, Clay, here. To say it was my deepest pleasure to attend RIW Hobbies for the 2023 Pauper Commander 1k is a vast understatement – so much so, I already have a placeholder for next year’s PDH 1k offering pinned on my calendar. These next 11 months simply cannot go by fast enough.
Not only do I serve the larger PDH community as one of ten Rules Committee members and make YouTube content, I also dabble in the communication of performance data relative to the Competitive Pauper Commander meta. My associate Bodarnn, also in the byline above, is the main Data Wizard for the cPDH.guide website and has generated most of the statistical outputs described hereafter. But before we get too deep into the RIW Hobbies specific data, let’s outline a little of what the metagame analysis project on cPDH.guide is trying to accomplish.
Since the Fall of 2021 (and prior to the PDH 1k), we collected the results of 577 user-submitted matches as a means to study the statistical trends observed in the (mostly) online meta so that brewers could make informed decisions on deck construction relative to that data. Essentially, the goal was to create a feedback loop of information where the brewer modifies their deck list based on submitted results. They then go on to win games and submit their own results, which then informs the next cycle of brewing, and on it goes. The RIW PDH 1k event added another 49 matches to that dataset – making it the third tournament this year (and the largest to date) to add data to that collective offering.
With that context, let’s take a deeper look at the results of the event.
Let’s begin with the elephant in the room: Stax. This year, a small number of notable brewers in the online community have been working feverishly to discover what Stax “looks like” from a PDH perspective, and most of the community is not convinced the archetype is possible or even exists. With respect to that, the one Stax deck (Phyrexian Censor) has been lumped in under the Control archetype.
Combo was the overwhelming favorite with 34.7% meta representation, followed by both Aggro and Midrange, each with 25% representation; Control brought up the rear with 15.3% representation. I suspect that the advertised round time of 80 mins – versus the online standard of 90 minutes – swayed some players in their decision making regarding which deck to play. After all, even under the auspices of 90-minute rounds, most players find winning with a true Control deck a difficult proposition.
Even with less representation, the Aggro decks had a “winningness” rate of 6.7%. What do we mean by this term? Simply put, winningness is the difference between a deck’s actual win percentage and its expected win percentage. So, if you played an Aggro deck at the event, the data suggests that you overperformed by the percentage listed above. Similarly, Combo decks experienced an above rate winningness percentage of 4.3%.
On the other side of the coin, Midrange and Control decks had winningness rates of -10.4% and -0.7%, respectively. In this analyst’s humble opinion, that’s not because there is fault in the archetypes themselves, per se. Rather, I perceive it being due to the blazing innovations in both the Combo and Aggro archetypes over the last eight months. The Midrange decks (and, to a lesser extent, Control) haven’t been able to adapt at the same pace; when they do, the meta shifts wildly again.
The most popular colors for the event were as follows, in descending order:
Of those colors, only two – Black and Red – overperformed with a winningness rate of 3.4% and 2.2% respectively. Blue, White, and Green experienced winningness rates of -0.8%, -2.0%, and -2.7%, in that order.
What I think is important to note here is the delta, or statistical spread, between those values is only 6.1%. This is not completely insignificant, but overall, Red, Blue, and White fell within that magical ±2.5% variability range. Green was just a little bit outside of that range, while Black was the only color to conclusively outperform its expected win percentage.
Of course, I saved the best data (or most popular) for last. Below, I’m going to use two terms – Meta and Fringe. Historically, the term Fringe has been used to denigrate players for their brewing choices. That is not what is intended here. I am using the term to explain a statistical delineation between one group and another. That said, the following Commanders are THE representative “Meta Commanders” for the 2023 RIW PDH 1k.
Vizkopa Guildmage, with one pilot and a total of four wins on the day, experienced an 80% win rate during those matches.
Sprite Dragon, under two different pilots, had a 50% win rate and five total wins.
Gut, True Soul Zealot, and Inspiring Leader, with three different pilots, had a win rate of 30.8% and four total wins.
Erinis, Gloom Stalker, and Street Urchin, with two pilots and 3 total wins, had a 30% win rate overall.
Gretchen Titchwillow is the last of the meta representative decks. With three pilots, they logged four total wins and have a combined win rate of 26.7%.
Finally, on to the statistical “Fringe Commanders” for the event. By using Laplace’s Rule of Succession, we determined which of the non-Meta commanders expressed performance viability beyond the average results put up by the rest of the field. What this means is that those Commanders possess indicators of potential meta performance – should the event be rerun under the same conditions.
With two wins each, the Grim decks Disciple of Deceit, Floodgate, Rilsa Rael, Kingpin, Risen Reef, and Syr Konrad each touted a 40% win rate on the day. The Kediss, Emberclaw Familiar, and Malcolm, Keen-Eyed Navigator lists also reported two total wins, but with only a 25% win rate each.
I am a firm believer that on any given day, any pilot can bring a list that completely blows apart previously conceived notions of what the meta breakdown for a tournament is predicted to be. For those who were at the RIW PDH 1k event, we saw that happen in real time with Vizkopa. I am hopeful that the information provided above helps the next brewer and their aim to smartly attack the meta and find success.
To all my new friends in Detroit, you set the standard for hospitality in events moving forward – and that’s a very high bar, indeed.
Clay is a Pauper Commander Rules Committee member, co-host of the Common Connoisseurs YouTube venture, and progenitor of the cPDH.guide website.
Bodarnn is data analyst for cPDH.guide. He has been playing Magic since Lorwyn, loves cPDH, casual Commander, and American Lager.
