The Modern metagame has been quickly evolving because the “best deck,” Boros Energy, is very beatable, leaving room for a constant stream of breakout strategies. Final Fantasy hasn’t had a significant impact at the top tiers of Modern which is great because the metagame was already diverse without a shakeup. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
RIW’s Modern RCQ is this Saturday, June 21, and I will be attending. The format is once again diverse as some of the flavors of the week have subsided. Today I’m going to break down some of the decks you can expect to face and their strength in the format.
Here’s the MTGGoldfish metagame from the last 7 days:
You can see there have been fairly drastic changes compared to the Modern metagame over the last 30 days:
I’ll use this rapid metagame shift as the foundation for how I discuss the decks I expect to face. I don’t expect the last 7 day metagame to settle and we will see some new decks to crack the upper echelon in the coming weeks.
Here’s MTGO grinder, Rastaf’s, list from a recent Challenge top 4:
Boros Energy looks similar compared to prior months, but the metagame shifts affect the matchup spread. Despite there being plenty of poor matchups for Boros Energy, it has actually increased in popularity recently.
A major reason for Boros becoming better positioned is because Gruul Broodscale has become the de facto Kozilek’s Command deck. While Broodscale is a more powerful shell for the Eldrazi cards as it can always threaten a turn 3 kill, Gruul Eldrazi Ramp preyed on Boros Energy.
Not only has Gruul Eldrazi fallen off the map, but Amulet Titan has declined in popularity which is another piece of good news for Boros Energy. Many Boros sideboards have ten real cards and five land destruction spells to fight Ramp and Amulet. Blood Moon and Molten Rain are better against Amulet while Obsidian Charmaw shines against Eldrazi.
A few short weeks ago Izzet Prowess was the talk of the town boasting nearly a 10% metagame share, but was critically weak to Phlage. I suspect Boros will fall slightly in popularity as its strongest matchup has effectively been batted down to a lower tier.
Another headwind for Boros in coming weeks is the popularity of Izzet Prowess keeping linear combo decks at bay as it’s consistently faster. There’s no sheriff left in town and combo decks are able to roam free to prey on Boros Energy. The Boros sideboard has ten slots to fight non-ramp linear combos and traditional fair (midrange/control/aggro) decks which isn’t enough space to respect everything at once.
When preparing for a Modern RCQ or a local event, remember this metagame breakdown only serves as a guide. Most paper Modern players won’t move from archetypes because of a few percentage points changing as they are restricted by budget and strategy preference. Amulet Titan is popular in certain regions regardless of expected metagame share on MTGO and I’ve noticed paper players also gravitate towards Psychic Frog and other midrange/control decks.
Here’s soapmtg’s recent Challenge-winning list:
Again, the stock Belcher list has remained relatively constant and is gaining metagame share as it’s a combo deck packed with disruption and protection and a consistent kill. Goblin Charbelcher is currently the best way to linearly win a game of Modern because the manabase serves as additional slots to interact.
Belcher’s natural enemies are currently on the decline, Izzet Prowess and Dimir Frog.
While Belcher is a powerful deck, it’s significantly better when beginning with a suspended Lotus Bloom. Tameshi and Whir of Invention for Lotus Bloom means the deck is able to provide a burst of mana and win the game faster than expected so don’t get blindsided.
Blue Belcher is powerful and resilient, but it’s susceptible to the strongest sideboard card in the format, Consign to Memory. A consistent win on turn 4 is also less appealing when going second because many decks are able to win before you’re able to cast Goblin Charbelcher.
Here’s nahuel10’s top 8 Challenge list:
Domain Zoo remains firmly in the 3-5th position among other decks occupying 6% of the metagame share. While many of this generation of Magic players may not know, I was a Zoo stan in the late 2000s qualifying for multiple Pro Tours with forgotten classics like Tarmogoyf and Kird Ape. Domain Zoo, in particular, is near and dear to my heart as I pioneered the good stuff approach by excluding linear creatures like Boros Swiftblade which was a staple at the time.
Despite my love for Zoo, I actually don’t like how this iteration plays. The Scion of Draco combo with Leyline of the Guildpact leads to very swingy draws. Leyline doesn’t have pitch spells to utilize extra copies, but they can be looted away with Fable of the Mirror-Breaker and Territorial Kavu.
The manabase being five colors means there are awkward draws where double-spelling with four mana is sometimes not possible. Leyline of the Guildpact enabling domain does make the deck much more smooth when it’s on the battlefield- even without Scion of Draco.
Consign to Memory is strong against Zoo because it counters the triggered ability of Leyline Binding as well as Scion of Draco. Spell Snare is hit or miss as it counters Territorial Kavu, but misses Scion.
The reason Zoo is able to hang in this A tier is because a fast clock backed by disruption is a recipe for sustained power. I wasn’t a fan that Stubborn Denial is the best way to interact because it sometimes will mean delaying a threat to keep up mana. Against midrange and control decks a ferocious Stubborn Denial is often just effectively giving a creature hexproof from a removal spell.
Zoo’s place in the metagame is effectively Boros Energy with a better combo matchup which comes at the expense of being weaker versus removal-based decks. It will play out better on average in the MTGO metagame because of paper player’s preference towards midrange and control.
Hunter Ovington shaped the metagame by taking down the SCG Spotlight Series with Gruul Broodscale:
Kozilek’s Command is one of the most powerful cards in the format and it will have a place in the Modern metagame. Gruul Broodscale is a fantastic home for Kozilek’s Command as it takes a shell of powerful Eldrazi cards and combines with the threat of killing on the third turn.
Mono Green Broodscale has been a known quantity in Modern, but the innovation that puts this deck into the A tier is adding Writhing Chrysalis. It makes the deck weaker against combo decks as Chrysalis isn’t fast enough to matter, but its staying power against fair (midrange/aggro/control) is worth the inclusion.
Basking Broodscale isn’t a Modern-power level card on its own, but combines with Blade of the Bloodchief to generate millions of mana and colorless creatures entering the battlefield to create a kill with Walking Ballista or Glaring Fleshraker.
Blade of the Bloodchief adds +1+1 counters when fairly equipped on Walking Ballista and plenty of creatures can die with so many Eldrazi Spawn tokens in the deck. Two Glaring Fleshrakers can also kill quickly meaning there’s not only the primary combo, but the remainder of the deck combines well, too.
Emrakul, the Promised End looks out of place, but is able to fill the graveyard with plenty of card types thanks to Walking Ballista, Urza’s Saga, and Kozilek’s Command. Eldrazi Temple and the horde of Eldrazi Spawn tokens combine to generate tons of mana to fairly cast Emrakul quickly. It’s a great haymaker to go over the top in fair matchups that can be found with Ancient Stirrings and Malevolent Rumble.
Overall, I like the Gruul Broodscale deck as I prefer strategies that combine high-powered cards with the threat of a quick kill. It’s relatively well-positioned to recover after a Wrath of the Skies unlike Azorius Affinity meaning it can survive in the A tier for a longer period of time.
Here’s Skpchino’s 6th place MTGO Challenge list:
While RIW’s own, Raja Sulaiman, made the top 4 of the SCG Spotlight event with Esper Blink, I would expect to face the traditional Orzhov build more often.
Orzhov Midrange is a grindy, fair deck at the core, but can go over the top with Phelia blinking Overlord of the Balemurk and recur multiple Solitudes to prevent the opponent from ever recovering.
Ketramose is still played, but not as popular because it forces you to play cards like Relic of Progenitus that don’t hold up well on their own. If graveyard strategies get too popular then I would expect a shift back to Ketramose. Esper decks still play Ketramose because of the synergy with Psychic Frog.
Many of the midrange decks play white because of the powerful sideboard options against linear combo and big mana strategies. White Orchid Phantom can be blinked with Ephemerate and Vindicate can do a nice Molten Rain impression against big mana while High Noon can stop various spell-based decks such as Prowess, Living End, and Storm.
I prefer Orzhov Blink to Domain Zoo as a midrange strategy that can both hang with Boros Energy while having a coherent game plan against the rest of the field. The downside of Orzhov is even the games where it’s very far ahead can take a while to close.
I’m going back to ol’ reliable because the format is open and there are enough linear decks with favorable matchups for Frogtide. The presence of Izzet Prowess suppressed combo decks and encouraged players to pilot grindy midrange decks. When the cat’s away the mice will play.
I’ve made some changes to the deck after playing Corey Burkhart’s Grixis Control strategy. Corey did an excellent writeup about his deck which can be found here.
Since Phlage is so popular I’m playing not only a Cling to Dust, but also a maindeck Nihil Spellbomb. I can’t play two Clings like Corey because of Murktide Regent.
The resurgence of Orzhov Midrange makes Kaito, Bane of Nightmares a solid top-end threat.
Sheoldred’s Edict and Dismember can take care of Ketramose out of certain flavors of Orzhov Midrange. I began with two Edicts, but the one mana aspect of Dismember is too good to exclude.
Snapcaster Mage in the sideboard is borrowing from Corey’s approach to control. Flame of Anor is the primary reason to maindeck Snapcaster Mage and flashing back key sideboard cards is another reason. Snapcaster allows me to cast Consign to Memory and Stern Scolding more often in their respective matchups. I still anticipate Eldrazi decks to be popular despite their current unpopularity and it’s a matchup Dimir has to respect to win.
Engineered Explosives is the sweeper of choice because of the strength against Urza’s Saga. Since there are many nimble interactive elements against Boros Energy I don’t value a sweeper like Toxic Deluge or The Meathook Massacre as much. Instead, I want to have Snapcaster Mage and Subtlety generate blockers and card advantage.
The rules change with Urza’s Saga against Harbinger of the Seas and Blood Moon means I wouldn’t board in this effect against Affinity. It was already weak and Engineered Explosives is where I will stop respecting the constructs. If Azorius Affinity is popular in your area then I would advise a Hurkyll’s Recall in addition to the two Explosives.
Modern is in one of the best spots it has been in a long time. I’m excited to play RIW’s RCQ this weekend.
