WHO AM I AND WHY AM I WRITING THIS GUIDE?
My name is Ethan, and I like to think I am above average at Magic: The Gathering. Most of the time I am playing Standard or Modern, usually for an RCQ, to prepare for an upcoming RC, or just jamming limited for the latest set on MTG Arena. Lately, however, you have probably seen me at RIW on Wednesday nights casting artifacts.
I have only been playing Pauper for about a year. I started playing the format strictly because the NRG Series was coming to Lansing for a team event and no one on my team wanted to sit in the Pauper seat. I took the bullet for them and started exploring the format. Originally a Mono-Red player, I took one look at the Pauper Red Aggro decklists and decided they lacked power for various reasons. I moved over to Jund Wildfire for a time. I liked the grindiness of the deck but disliked the lack of closing speed. Playing Jund did help me formulate one strong opinion:
Pyroblast is a really good sideboard card. What other card is like Pyroblast?
Hydroblast! What deck was playing both of those cards in the sideboard? Grixis Affinity!
At the time, the format was heavily dominated by Mono-Blue Terror and the aforementioned Red Madness decks. I started playing Grixis Affinity and quickly fell in love with my silly robots. At the Lansing event, I went 4-1 in matches during the team event (don’t ask me about my team’s record) and decided to play the NRG x RIW Pauper $2K the next day. My robots took me to the finals, earning me enough points for the RIW Pauper Invitational. A lackluster performance at that invitational left me craving redemption, and I have been grinding the weeklies and $1Ks this year with the goal of getting back. So far so good on that end, as I am averaging a 75% win rate with the deck at the weeklies and made the finals of the June 6 $1K. I believe Grixis Affinity is the best midrange deck in the format. It is surprisingly resilient to hate, features flexible sideboard answers for a myriad of decks, and offers a lot of room to feel smart about your lines.
I cannot claim to have designed this deck. When I started playing it, I went where everyone goes to get a list: MTGGoldfish. I shamelessly net-decked a list from LuffyDoChapeuDePalha, an MTGO grinder who religiously plays Grixis Affinity in every Pauper Challenge. I did make one change, however, and have never looked back. I added the 20th land.
Generally, casting spells leads to a greater win rate in Magic. To cast spells, you usually need lands. Grixis Affinity has several additional factors to consider. First, our lands are artifacts, which reduce the cost of our affinity cards. Second, our lands are artifacts, so they are vulnerable to removal. I mentioned previously that this deck is surprisingly resilient to hate, and I stand by that. I have had many games where I have a land hit by [[Cast into the Fire]], or even two lands exiled by [[Dust to Dust]], yet I still recover to win. This occurs frequently. The games I do lose in these situations happen when I legitimately have no more lands to play afterward and my opponent has the pressure to back up their start (check out my match in the finals versus Chad Kay on Rally Red for an example of what those games look like). The 20th land offers more insulation against those types of game textures.
A common counterpoint to this is that the deck draws a lot of cards, giving us more looks to find our lands. To this, I argue we need to get our lands into play first before we can really start drawing cards. The deck truly starts to hum once we have our third land in play. This is when we can cast [[Refurbished Familiar]] for one mana, or reliably cast [[Thoughtcast]] and [[Utrom Monitor]]. The god turn, in my opinion, happens when we have already cast an artifact on turn one or turn two. Then, on turn three, we play a land and go Familiar into Monitor into Myr Enforcer for one mana each. Many of these lines simply require that third land.
In an attempt to confirm my biases, I turned to math and statistics. To quote a Magic friend, “we can do a simple hypergeometric calculation” to look at the difference between 19 and 20 lands. Let’s start by looking at opening hands. The population size is the number of cards in our deck (60). The sample size is our opening hand (7). The number of successes in the population is 19 or 20 depending on the number of lands we play. I am primarily interested in having to mulligan due to seeing too few lands, which I will define as zero or one. Putting these parameters into a hypergeometric calculator, the probability of seeing one or fewer lands in the opening seven with 19 lands is 27.9%, while with 20 lands it drops to 24.7%.
This does not tell the full story. If you mulligan your seven, you shuffle up and get to look at seven new cards. You may even have to do it again if there aren’t six keepable cards in that fresh grip. The math quickly becomes too complicated for a simple calculator, so I coded a quick simulation in Python. It tracks the total number of mulligans taken across 100,000 games, where the criteria for a mulligan was either 0-1 lands or 5-7 lands. Here are the results:
— Results for 19 Lands (100,000 iterations) —
Total Mulligan Count (Too Few Lands 0-1): 40275
Total Mulligan Count (Too Many Lands 5-7): 4029
Average Mulligans per Game: 0.44
Games with 0 Mulligans: 69.24%
Games with 1 Mulligan: 21.38%
Games with 2 Mulligans: 6.46%
Games with 3 Mulligans: 2.06%
Games with 4+ Mulligans: 0.86%
Probability of hitting 3+ Lands by Turn 3: 85.31%
— Results for 20 Lands (100,000 iterations) —
Total Mulligan Count (Too Few Lands 0-1): 34633
Total Mulligan Count (Too Many Lands 5-7): 4879
Average Mulligans per Game: 0.40
Games with 0 Mulligans: 71.70%
Games with 1 Mulligan: 20.30%
Games with 2 Mulligans: 5.69%
Games with 3 Mulligans: 1.65%
Games with 4+ Mulligans: 0.66%
Probability of hitting 3+ Lands by Turn 3: 87.36%
Adding the extra land reduces the number of mulligans due to too few lands by 5,642, while only increasing the number of mulligans due to too many lands by 850 instances. This also may be too conservative of a rule for hands with five or more lands, as some five-land hands could be keepable. I would strongly consider keeping five lands alongside an Ichor Wellspring and Reckoner’s Bargain, for example. Regardless, this tangent got out of hand. Casting spells is good. Play more lands in your decks.
Let’s actually talk about the deck now, shall we? With the additional land, the maindeck becomes exceptionally tight. Every card in the main needs to be advancing our plan or solving a problem (and ideally doing both). Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles provided us two new cards that fit the deck well but led to a lot of trimming around the edges. Here is the list I played at the June 6 $1K:
Overall, I was happy with this list and wouldn’t be upset if I were forced to resubmit it for the next $1K.
The combo of [[Krark-Clan Shaman]] plus [[Toxin Analysis]] makes it difficult for other decks to play to the board, while our air force stays out of harm’s way. Many matchups come down to resolving and activating the Shaman at the right time. Most decks have some kind of removal, so the safest place for the Shaman is in your hand until he is needed. The exception applies to decks with countermagic, such as Mono-Blue Terror. Sliding him into play when they tap out for a spell is a great insurance policy for later in the game.
There are many tricks you can do with Krark-Clan Shaman. When you sacrifice an [[Ichor Wellspring]] to the Shaman, the Wellspring draw trigger goes on the stack above the damage ability. You can let this resolve first to get more information, or to find a Toxin Analysis, before putting more damage triggers on the stack. In the event you need to sacrifice a bunch of artifacts to clear the board but have a [[Myr Enforcer]] in hand, you can cast the Enforcer and hold priority to activate Krark-Clan Shaman. This lets you cast the Enforcer cheaply while keeping your big robot out of harm’s way on the stack.
You might also find yourself in a situation where your opponent’s creatures leave behind more creatures when they die, such as a bestowed [[Nyxborn Hydra]]. If you have cast Toxin Analysis on your Shaman, you can put two triggers onto the stack. The first one will kill the Krark-Clan Shaman and the board. The second trigger will still retain the deathtouch and lifelink properties, allowing you to clean up anything that popped out after the first trigger was resolved.
I already wrote about the power of [[Toxin Analysis]] in conjunction with Krark-Clan Shaman, but don’t forget this card has other applications. Deathtouch on a chump blocker can deal with a problematic attacker, a lifelinking attack on a [[Myr Enforcer]] may be the cushion you need against Mono-Red, and don’t forget it makes a Clue. This token can feed a Shaman, bump your affinity count, or give you a redraw. However, despite singing its praises, I do think it is one of the weaker cards in the deck. It was one of the first cards I trimmed from the stock lists to make room for the changes I wanted. The card is such an important combo with KCS, though, that I don’t think I would ever go below two copies.
An important card advantage spell, ideally paired with [[Ichor Wellspring]] for a build-your-own [[Ancestral Recall]]. Don’t forget the lifegain in the aggro matchups. It can also act as a pseudo protection spell against decks with lots of single-target removal, so keep that in mind before you tap out to deploy your Enforcer or Monitor. It might be better to wait until you can leave up [[Reckoner’s Bargain]] to turn an already dead creature into two fresh cards.
This is the best 4-for-1 to ever exist. Paying one mana to net two artifacts lets you turbo out some crazy starts, and the late-game inevitability it provides is second to none. It is one of our best cards against Terror due to its sheer value against 1-for-1 decks. It is also a key card in the midrange mirror, matching up well against both the Grixis mirror and Jund Wildfire. This brings me to our next card.
Most decks in Pauper utilize the graveyard, earning [[Nihil Spellbomb]] a permanent place in the main deck. There are the obvious targets like Spy Combo and Terror. However, even Red Aggro plays [[Sneaky Snacker]], Elves tries to disrupt you with [[Masked Vandal]], and the aforementioned midrange decks get value out of their graveyard through Blood Fountain or [[Pulse of Murasa]]. The fact that it is an artifact and cycles for a card is just icing on the cake for Game 1. It even has the decency to be an easy cut against non-graveyard decks, allowing us to bring in more impactful sideboard cards.
A controversial upgrade from the release of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles set. While not completely format-warping as was feared when it was spoiled, it is a synergistic and powerful threat for the deck. Flying means it stays out of the way of our Krark-Clan Shaman, and paired with another flier, it presents a quick clock that demands interaction. The card comes with some downsides, mainly in making us weaker to Pyroblast with an increased blue spell count. However, the card is strong enough that I would run a minimum of three, if not the full four.
Another interesting card from TMNT, this time in the main set (so less controversial)! This card kinda does it all. It taps down a big attacker to buy some time, taps down a blocker to get in for lethal, acts as an artifact for your affinity count, and draws two cards! Don’t forget that it taps something down whenever it leaves the battlefield, not just to its draw ability. We have many ways to make that happen. Krark-Clan Shaman, Makeshift Munitions, and Reckoner’s Bargain can all have the added text of tapping down a creature.
One of the strongest cards in the deck, but we can never afford to draw two of them, so it stays a one-of. The inevitability it provides is fantastic on top of practically nullifying our opponent’s removal. It can be slow in some matchups, but in the grindy games, it is one of the most important cards you can draw.
I won’t waste too much time discussing the other cards; they are 4-ofs for a reason. The core of the deck is built around cheap card advantage like [[Thoughtcast]] and [[Ichor Wellspring]], cheap threats like [[Myr Enforcer]] and [[Refurbished Familiar]], and cheap interaction like [[Galvanic Blast]]. A lot of these cards are also played in other pauper decks, but Grixis Affinity is the best at exploiting the artifact card type to maximum effect. Once you put three Myr Enforcers into play on turn four or close the game out with two Galvanic Blasts from hand, you’ll be hooked. I know I was.
When deciding on cards to cut post-board, some questions immediately come to my mind. Does their deck use the graveyard? If not, spellbomb is an easy cut. How grindy are the games? If they are over quickly, a card like blood fountain loses a lot of its power. If they have a lot of fliers, Krark-Clan Shaman loses a lot of utility. Most of the cards in the sideboard are fairly self-explanatory. Red blasts come in for the blue matchups, and blue blasts come in for the red matchups. Removal spells and board wipes come in for the creature matchups. I decided to play [[Cast Down]] over [[Extract a Confession]] because I valued instant speed and the ability to target over getting around the Ward cost of Terror. In a meta with more [[Guardian of the Guildpact]] or Bogles, I could see switching back to Extract.
I played two copies of [[Cast into the Fire]] for the last $1K. This inclusion requires more testing. The card wasn’t embarrassing throughout the day, but I never actually played against the matchups I registered it for (the Grixis Mirror and Monster Tron). I am going to keep trying it out until I form a stronger opinion. I did not miss the [[Unexpected Fangs]]. I have generally been unimpressed with that card. I think it is too easily blown out by the sideboard cards that the red decks bring in, and relying on the blasts is a sufficient plan for those matchups.
MATCHUPS AND SIDEBOARD GUIDE
The pingers are the most important threat from the opponent, as the extra damage they tack onto any spell adds up quickly. However, they generally don’t go wide enough to justify a board wipe like KCS. Keep an eye out for the pingers, and remember that only the last point of life matters, so be judicious with your counterspells.
- Out: -3 Krark-Clan Shaman, -2 Blood Fountain, -1 Sewer-Veillance Cam, -1 Makeshift Munitions
- In: +5 Blue Blasts, +2 Cast Down
Cast into the Fire might be crazy, but in my head, it plays out nicely. They will often lead on [[Great Furnace]] if they have it to turn on [[Goblin Tomb Raider]] or their own Galv Blasts. Stone Raining a land in an 18-land deck could end the game on the spot. Even if you don’t see their Great Furnace, acting as a mini-board wipe also has nice properties. I think it is an alright plan, but you be the judge.
- Out: -3 Nihil Spellbomb, -2 Blood Fountain, -1 Sewer-Veillance Cam, -1 Makeshift Munitions, -1 Fanatical Offering
- In: +5 Blue Blasts, +2 Cast into the Fire, +1 Krark-Clan Shaman
Mono-Blue or Blue-Black Terror
A matchup I am fairly comfortable in. We have the tools to disrupt their main plan with Nihil Spellbomb and Krark-Toxin, alongside plenty of 2-for-1s to grind out long games against their counterspells. The games we lose are tempo games of cheap interaction (like [[Annul]] and [[Steel Sabotage]]) plus a quick [[Tolarian Terror]]. As good as card advantage is against Terror, getting a Reckoner’s Bargain countered feels terrible, so I trim on those types of effects.
- Out: -4 Galvanic Blast, -2 Reckoner’s Bargain, -1 Fanatical Offering, -1 Ichor Wellspring
- In: +5 Red Blasts, +2 Cast Down, +1 Krark-Clan Shaman
Grixis Affinity (The Mirror)
This sideboard configuration should mean we are favored against the stock list. Cast into the Fire gives us the ability to disrupt their mana, cleanly answer a Myr Enforcer or Utrom Monitor, or clean up a couple of pesky familiars. Cast Down over Extract also gives a percentage point. The matchup still gets pretty grindy, so the key cards are Blood Fountain and Nihil Spellbomb. If one player resolves a Blood Fountain activation, I would heavily favor them to win that game.
- Out: -3 Krark-Clan Shaman, -2 Toxin Analysis
- In: +2 Cast Down, +2 Cast into the Fire, +1 Pyroblast
[[Masked Vandal]] into a quick [[Avenging Hunter]] is very difficult to deal with. Thankfully, we have Nihil Spellbomb and cheap interaction to slow that kind of start down. If you can back up a KCS wipe with some pressure, we are in a good spot to win the game since they will need a couple of turns to rebuild. Be warned, they WILL rebuild, so end the game quickly! You might think Sewer-Veillance Cam is at home in this matchup, disrupting their manadorks or tapping down a big idiot, but unfortunately [[Quirion Ranger]] does a great job at negating the tap effect that the card loses a lot of utility.
- Out: -2 Blood Fountain, -1 Myr Enforcer, -1 Fanatical Offering, -1 Sewer-Veillance Cam
- In: +2 Cast Down, +2 Cast into the Fire, +1 Krark-Clan Shaman
A tough midrange matchup. Unfortunately, they have the better long game, so we need to be ready to take the beatdown role. This isn’t quite what the deck is built for, so the games can be quite tough. One trick in the matchup is that Galvanic Blast can kill a [[Writhing Chrysalis]] if they sacrifice the Spawn first, so keep an eye out for your window to deal with that card.
- Out: -3 Krark-Clan Shaman, -1 Toxin Analysis
- In: +2 Cast Down, +2 Cast into the Fire
This is the matchup I put Cast into the Fire into the board for because it is capital-R Rough. Without many ways to interact with their Tron lands, they go over the top very fast. Each one of their fatties either kills one of our things or gains them a bunch of life, making it very difficult to race. I don’t have much advice to give other than to race them as fast as possible while thinking about Sisyphus pushing the boulder up the mountain when they gain five life for the third time.
- Out: -2 Blood Fountain, -1 Nihil Spellbomb, -1 Makeshift Munitions
- In: +2 Cast Down, +2 Cast into the Fire
I used to be scared of this deck because I thought they just had a turn-four combo win every game. Then I realized their combo has quite a few hoops. First, they have to get all of the basics out of their deck. Second, they need to find their Spy. Their deck is set up to do both of those things and we can’t really stop them. Third, however, they need to have three creatures in play to flashback [[Dread Return]]. We can interact with this step quite easily with Krark-Clan Shaman. Fourth, they need to have the giant in the graveyard when Dread Return resolves, which we can interact with using Nihil Spellbomb. If you just focus on steps three and four, they will have a much harder time comboing. Prioritize their mana producers with your single-target removal.
- Out: -2 Blood Fountain, -1 Makeshift Munitions
- In: +2 Cast Down, +1 Krark-Clan Shaman
